Ediverto Rendon opened La Amistad Pizza in East Harlem in 2018, long before anyone broke ground on the tunnel that now runs past his front door. Earlier this year, construction crews working on Second Avenue Subway Phase 2 fenced off much of his storefront, and he told CBS New York he isn't sure his shop will survive to see the finished line. He also called it "the big picture," meaning he understands the long view even as he lives the short-term cost.
That tension, a business absorbing real disruption today in exchange for a payoff that may not arrive for years, is exactly what played out in Yorkville a decade ago. The difference is that Yorkville's version of this story already has an ending, and the numbers behind it are public. For anyone comparing pockets of the Upper East Side right now, that ending is worth reading closely before writing off a block just because it sits near active construction.
The Same Mechanism, One Neighborhood North
Second Avenue Subway Phase 1 broke ground in 2007 and opened on January 1, 2017, adding three stations at 72nd, 86th, and 96th Streets. For most of that decade, Second Avenue itself was a construction site. At one point, underground blasting shattered windows in local storefronts. Residents who bought during that stretch knew exactly what they were signing up for.
John Patrick Hanley bought his apartment near East 81st Street and First Avenue in 2015, while tunnels for the Q were still being bored. Back then his commute meant a seven-block walk to catch the 6 train, a trip that could take 45 minutes. Since 2017 he's caught the Q two blocks from home and cut that commute in half. Asked what changed in the neighborhood since, he told Crain's:
"The subway has brought better accessibility but also a better vibe."
Phase 2 is now doing to East Harlem what Phase 1 did to Yorkville. Governor Hochul joined MTA leadership for a formal groundbreaking on June 8, 2026, marking the start of major construction on the extension, which will push the Q line from its current terminus at 96th Street north to 125th Street, with new stations at 106th, 116th, and 125th. Preliminary utility work under Contract 1 has been underway along Second Avenue between 104th and 112th Streets since 2024, relocating gas mains, sewer lines, and electrical conduit ahead of tunnel construction, with that phase of work targeted for completion by the fourth quarter of 2026. Tunnel boring is scheduled to begin in early 2027, using 750-ton machines with 22-foot diamond-studded drill heads, and the line is targeted to open for revenue service in 2032.
| Phase 1 (Yorkville) | Phase 2 (East Harlem) | |
|---|---|---|
| Groundbreaking | 2007 | June 8, 2026 (major construction stage) |
| New stations | 72nd, 86th, 96th St | 106th, 116th, 125th St |
| Opening | January 1, 2017 | Targeted 2032 |
| Construction-era disruption | A decade of street work; underground blasting shattered storefront windows | Active utility relocation and demolition along Second Avenue, 104th-112th St |
| Documented price effect | Values rose 6-10% near new stations vs. rest of UES | Not yet measurable; opening still six years out |
What The Repricing Actually Looked Like
The headline number comes from a peer-reviewed study published through the National Bureau of Economic Research and later in the Journal of Urban Economics. Comparing properties near the three new Phase 1 stations against the rest of the Upper East Side, the researchers found real estate values rose 6 to 10 percent in the vicinity of the new stops relative to the surrounding neighborhood. That gain was large enough, by the study's own accounting, to cover the project's construction cost on its own, even before counting any benefit to the city's tax base.
A separate analysis from NeighborhoodX, using Miller Samuel data, looked at the narrower window right around the opening itself: condo prices within a block of the three new stations rose 5.12 percent between 2016 and 2017, compared to a 2.66 percent increase across Yorkville overall in the same period. And the co-op market told its own version of the story. The average price per square foot for a Yorkville co-op sat at $1,067 one year before the line opened, dipped slightly to $1,041 right at the January 2017 opening, then climbed to $1,203 per square foot by July 2018, a new high for the neighborhood.
The pattern across all three data points is the same: prices didn't wait for the ribbon-cutting. The NBER researchers built their study around this exact assumption, starting their "post" period four years before the actual 2017 opening, on the reasoning that real estate values are forward-looking and should anticipate a subway line whose completion is no longer seriously in doubt. That's the mechanism worth understanding before dismissing a listing near active construction today. The market doesn't wait for the last piece of track to be laid. It starts pricing in the benefit as soon as the outcome looks certain.
The Buildings That Didn't Wait Either
Developers read the same signal. In the years leading up to the Phase 1 opening, roughly nineteen new residential projects broke ground between 59th and 96th Streets, a wave that included Citizen 360 at 360 East 89th Street, the Charles tower at 1355 First Avenue, Carnegie Park at 200 East 94th Street, and The Kent at 200 East 95th Street. The Kent in particular reframed what Yorkville could command: two-bedroom units started just under $3 million and five-bedrooms ran up to $9 million, pricing that borrowed more from Park Avenue than from the neighborhood's historically modest reputation. None of those projects were betting on a finished subway. They were betting on the same anticipation effect the later academic research would go on to quantify.
What's Actually Happening Right Now
Phase 2's current disruption sits in East Harlem, not in the core Upper East Side, and that distinction matters. The active work zone runs along Second Avenue roughly from 104th to 125th Street, north of Yorkville's usual boundary at 96th. Contract 2, awarded in August 2025 for just under $2 billion, covers tunnel construction from 114th Street to 125th Street and Lenox Avenue, including rehabilitation of tunnel segments originally bored in the 1970s. A separate roughly $1 billion contract, awarded in 2026, covers the tunnel and future station shell between 105th and 110th Streets using a cut-and-cover approach. Businesses in the immediate footprint, La Amistad Pizza among them, spent the spring dealing with blocked storefronts and reduced visibility, with the MTA pledging larger signage and a smaller work-zone footprint in front of the pizzeria by July 2026.
None of that construction is happening under Park or Fifth Avenue, or even under most of Yorkville. But three things tie it back to an Upper East Side buyer's decision today. First, the extension will make the existing 72nd, 86th, and 96th Street stations more useful the moment it opens, since a one-seat ride will connect the Upper East Side directly to 125th Street and, from there, to the Lexington Avenue lines and Metro-North's Harlem-125th Street station, an upgrade to a line that already exists in your neighborhood. Second, the project follows the identical anticipation logic that repriced Yorkville a decade ago, just applied one neighborhood north and against a longer runway to completion. Third, it gives anyone shopping the Upper East Side right now a live version of the exact question Yorkville buyers faced in 2012 or 2015: is visible construction a discount worth taking, or a warning worth heeding?
The Read For Buyers Today
Phase 1's own history argues for the discount reading, with two honest caveats. The opening is still six years away, not imminent, so any present-day price effect on the Upper East Side proper is more likely to reflect improved utility of the existing Q stops than a direct East Harlem spillover. And East Harlem's rezoning, existing public housing footprint, and land use pattern differ enough from Yorkville's that a repeat of the exact 6 to 10 percent premium isn't guaranteed. What is transferable is the underlying behavior: prices in this corridor have historically moved before the construction finished, not after, and the neighborhood directly benefiting from better connectivity to that corridor is the Upper East Side itself.
If you're comparing listings in the 90s near Second and Third Avenue against comparable inventory closer to Park, that history is worth weighing alongside price per square foot. A block dealing with visible transit investment today has, at least once before, been the block that outperformed six years later.
A Few Questions Worth Asking
- Does this listing sit within walking distance of the 96th Street station, and would a future one-seat ride to 125th Street change how you'd use the line day to day?
- Has the building's board or management discussed any expected construction noise, dust, or logistics changes tied to nearby utility work?
- How does the current asking price per square foot compare to the neighborhood's broader Yorkville average, and does that gap look more like a discount or a fair reflection of the building itself?
FAQ
Is the current subway construction happening inside the Upper East Side? The active Phase 2 work zone runs from roughly 104th to 125th Street, which is East Harlem, not the core Upper East Side. The neighborhood's existing stations at 72nd, 86th, and 96th Street aren't under construction now, but they will gain new one-seat connections once Phase 2 opens.
When will Phase 2 actually be finished? Tunnel boring is scheduled to begin in early 2027, with the line targeted to open for revenue service in 2032.
Did Yorkville's construction-era prices actually fall, or just slow down? The dip was modest and brief. Co-op price per square foot slipped from $1,067 to $1,041 in the year leading up to the 2017 opening, then rose to $1,203 within eighteen months of the line going live.
If you're weighing a purchase near this corridor and want a clearer read on how a specific building or block has actually traded, Hilary James can walk through the comparables with you. Request a confidential consultation to talk through what the next six years of this project might mean for your search.
